Normally we'd have to wait until next June to find out what the unemployment rate was for graduates who left university in 2008/9 six months after graduating - DLHE is in progress and won't complete for a little while.
But thanks to a Parliamentary question from David Willetts to the Cabinet Office Minister, Angela Smith, we have at least got an estimate for graduate unemployment (for graduates who had received their degree within the last year) in June 2009.
The figure is 11.4% of graduates who are economically active (all those who are working or seeking work - so I assume not those in further study), or 9.4% of all graduates who got degrees within the last year.
It is also not clear what is meant by 'degree' - if it is the LFS, it could well be 'all Level 4 qualifications and above', which would bring in all sorts of qualifications from Foundation degrees to PhDs - Masters qualifications would probably be the major contributer to that figure apart from Bachelors degrees.
The source used is the Labour Force Survey, and so the stats are considered acceptable but with significant potential variation.
Looking at previous years data it does vary a little from DLHE, but what this tells us is that 2008/9 did see significantly worse graduate unemployment than 2008.
Essentially, the unemployment rate according to the LFS went up between 3.3 and 4.3% between 2008 and 2009, which means we can expect a rate for DLHE well above 10% and possibly over 11% - a figure to rival the recessions of the 90s, but not quite as bad as that of the early 80s.
3 comments:
Hi Charlie
Been trying to square this with the pattern of vacancy ads we're still seeing in the Careers Service at Manchester Univ (ads down for last two years, but still not as low as 2004/5 - http://manchesterpgcareers.wordpress.com/2009/12/11/jobs-update-the-long-view/)
Could it be that strategic recruitment, investing in recognised graduate positions for their future potential, is holding up better than general recruitment? We both know that most grads go into a wide range of jobs not designated as training positions or schemes, and it may be that these general jobs have been hit harder than the sought-after "graduate schemes".
There may also be some window-dressing, with organisations advertising graduate jobs as a PR exercise with little intention of taking anyone on. However, I can't see anyone bothering to do this after the early autumn rush and the flow of ads to the Careers Service still continues.
As my acknowledged Labour Stats Guru(!), I'd welcome any thoughts why our job ad stats don't seem to fit with the emerging picture on grad unemployment (even if it's my sums which are dodgy).
Cheers
Elizabeth
It's certainly possible, Elizabeth, and anecdotally we've heard things along those lines. There does seem to have been a drop in some of those general roles, along with falls elsewhere. We'll get a good idea when we see how vocational and non-vocational degrees compare later in the year.
However, we've also heard some worrying things about the fate of graduates on some of those schemes once they've ended, so I am not sure.
That's linked in with your comments about 'window dressing'- it might be taking place.
There may be a local effect for Manchester University, as well. That's also possible - we shall have to bide our time and wait.
There may be more information forthcoming soon ;)
I'll look forward to seeing how this all pans out.
We did get some comments from exhibitors in the PhD Zone at the June Graduate Fair that some of their organisations were actively continuing with R&D recruitment, having learnt the lessons of previous recessions. They wanted to be well set up with good quality research employees so they could come out of the recession on top.
Or maybe I'll go with the line that employers just love to target Manchester University students - or even better, that they love our Careers Service ;)
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