In time to test if some of my predictions are right, DLHE 2008/9 is now out.
Was I right about '30,000' EU graduates being out of work? Actually, no, I was a bit too high. The good news is that it wasn't as bad last year as expected, and in the end, just under 21,000 (20,945, thanks for asking) EU graduates were out of work six months after graduating, which at a response rate of 80.6% gives us almost exactly 26,000 unemployed EU graduates. The unemployment rate for all UK-domiciled first degree graduates was bang on 9%, which puts 2008/9 well below the worst years on record for unemployment, and actually puts it as the joint eighth-worst.
Our figures are a little different to HESA's because they separate out full time and part time graduates, and we combine them to get an overall figure, so use the one that represents your constituency the best. As full-timers are 90% of the sample, though, the figures tend to represent what they do more.
If that's the peak of graduate unemployment, then it could have been a lot worse.